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Weathering Noise
After opening the trade on October 13th based on a certain analysis and technical picture, price breaks in the opposite direction!
Traders that use risk management techniques such as exposure per trade, are less likely to close a position at the first instance of the market swinging against them.
A trader with a risk management plan is not as easily affected by fear because he has already determined when he would exit the position if the market continues to move in the wrong direction. Therefore, the price movement after the position is open (3) is considered noise. With this trading strategy in place the trader would be able to gain once the market turned back up. Fortunately for the trader, the market changed direction at an opportune moment as the stop was very close to being activated. However, if price did not turn around and kept heading downward, the trader would close the position once his maximum risk level for any particular trade was reached.
www.cmsfx.comSizing a Position
In another scenario, a trader wants to enter when the market breaks the (1) high, and also establishes a stop at 1.2480. The next time that price breaks 1.2575 is on October 19th.
Let's first look at a trader that has a $20,000 account and is willing to risk 5%, or $1,000, as his exposure per trade. Since the stop is 100 pips away, or $1,000 away on a standard 1 Lot, he would take out a 1 Lot position. With this size trade, if the market moves against him and the position gets stopped out, he would have lost only 5% of equity as planned.
If there was a similar trader that chose 5% as her exposure per trade and had the same stop, but had $10,000 in her account then a 1 Lot position would not work for her. If she was to open a 1 Lot trade, and her stop was reached, she would lose 10% of her account, not 5%. Therefore, the proper size for her risk threshold would be a position that is 5 mini-lots or .5 standard Lots.
www.cmsfx.comSizing a Position 2
Let's go back to the trader from our first example (from previous page), but now he does not place a trade on October 13th.
After there is a new bottom on the 14th, and the currency starts to show strength again, this trader wants to enter when a new high at 1.2520 (5) is broken. He will get that chance either on the 15th or the 18th. Entering at this level, while having the same stop means the trader can take on a bigger position as the amount of pips to get to the stop (risk) is now smaller by about half.
For a $20,000 dollar account, with a 5% risk per trade threshold, the position can be 2.5 Lots. An adverse move to reach the stop is around 40 pips, which is equivalent to $400 for 1 Lot. Since the trader has $1000 to risk on this trade, he divides $1,000 (exposure per trade) by $400 (possible loss for 1 Lot) to get the number of Lots he would take out for this position. For example, a 1 Lot position, when the stop is reached would have used 2% of equity (20,000/400=.02). For a 2 Lot position the stop would be activated at 4% of equity. The trade size that fits the trader's exposure per trade is 2.5 Lots.
In the same scenario, for a trader with $10,000 in her account and 5% as a chosen exposure per trade, the position she would open would be 1.25 Lots. The number is calculated by dividing her exposure per trade, $500, by the possible loss for a 1 lot trade to the stop, $400.
Therefore, $500/$400 = 1.25 Lots.
There is a lot to learn about position and money management. The ideas presented here are a very basic primer and it is recommended that you study trading psychology and proper risk management to improve your chances of surviving in the Forex market.
Now, we will continue our lesson by presenting some more basic concepts.
Iwww.cmsfx.comn another example, it is Oct. 12th and I am a trend follower. I want to enter on currency strength when I see a new uptrend forming as price approaches a new high at 1.2575
Let's assume that from looking at support levels beforehand I made the conclusion to place my stop somewhere around 1.2480, which is a difference of around 100 pips.
If I have a $20,000 account and my exposure per trade is 5%, I can risk $1000 on a given trade. If I prefer to open 1 Lot positions, the 100 pip difference from where I want to open my trade to the stop fits with my 5% requirement. Therefore, the amount from 1.2575 to 1.2480 is now considered my risk after opening the position.
As long as price stays within the 100 pip risk zone, it will be considered noise. If the pair moves to 1.2480, my original analysis was wrong and the stop loss order I placed earlier should close my position.
How to size one's position ties into exposure per trade and will be discussed on the next page, along with what happens next to the "new uptrend".
This is something a new trader may not want to hear, but an important psychological part of trading Forex is to understand that unless a trader has a big enough account to weather adverse market moves, the capital in one’s account should be considered risk capital. Forex is not the same as other investments since traders, depending on one’s leverage options, can and should be ready to lose all the capital in his or her account. Of course, in reality a trading plan is designed to do just the opposite, not to lose money. When beginning a trading plan, another step for a trader is to determine the psychological level of drawdown on the account that one is willing to tolerate.
An aggressive trader may be willing to take on bigger risk to potentially get a larger reward. For example, he or she may be ready to face a drawdown level of 50% of the capital in an account in order to try and achieve certain results. A conservative trader on the other hand may only be willing to get a smaller reward but will risk, for example, only 10% of the account. These numbers are not meant to be taken literally, they are just used here to highlight that some traders may have a bigger appetite for risk while others are more conservative.
Why is the topic of potential drawdown being discussed? It should be understood that if one’s trading is generating losses, instead of returns, and the account is approaching a trader’s maximum drawdown level, it means that something is wrong with the trading approach or tools. It may be time to stop trading and re-evaluate the analysis that the trader is using.
It is perfectly normal to lose on any particular trade, but it is a serious warning when there are consecutive losses and the losses add up to a large part of a trader’s account. Small losses are part of the trading plan, as some positions will end as losers and others will be winners; what is important is to have an average between the two that is positive. This means that the winners are bigger than the losers and an account is building equity.
Per Trade Exposure
A trader’s maximum operational drawdown is linked to the money management technique: per trade exposure. Per trade exposure is a technique in which there is a certain amount of capital that a trader is willing to allocate per trade. This means that there is a certain amount of risk per trade that the trader is willing to assume.
Many new traders think that if they see a potential trade, they can risk a substantial part of their capital to get a large return. One of the recipes to disaster or failure in trading is when a beginner trader tries to get rich quick; to make a fortune with one or two trades. One should aim to trade with consistency, and on average win more than you lose.
Let’s say that a trader, has a $10,000 dollar account and wants to allocate 5% of his account per trade. This means the trader is willing to risk losing $500 on any one trade. If a position goes against him by 5% of his account then according to his per trade exposure he should close it. When a trader has a specific per trade exposure amount it forces him or her to use discipline, limiting the effect of emotions on trading decisions.
Again, the numbers that are being used here are strictly to build an example and should not be used literally. If one is unsure what amount to allocate per trade, they should seek the advice and guidance of a financial advisor.

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    • Soon we'll completely ignore their rules. let's face it, WTF are they going to do to our trade after kicking it in the testes for so long, it's on it's knees. Are they going to sack us, refuse to issue a licence?

    They appear to live in that fantasy world, all those types do. In that they believe we'll all carry on as before, because they say so. yet they wouldn't get out of bed for less than £xxxxx salary, yet expect working preople to work for a pittance, whilst their profession is destroyed around them. Well TFL it's not going to happen.

    They'll end up with the inferior service they already get from those app based suppliers. but, then they don't really give a fece do they. Didn't that flacid TFL sychophant say, "it's what Londoners want", whilst lieing his teeth off about land lines, & Insurance?

    So WTF are TFL going to do to drivers who have no stakeholding or concern about TFL regs. Oh Yes, you're going to badge & bill us, along with hold up our license renewals, that'll impress us, won't it, not.

    I forgot, TFL already have minicabs that don't abide by their regs, whilst TFL do sweet FA to them, except the odd road stop or similar.


    It's merely the ability to earn a living, whilst having reasonable freedom, flexibility of the job, that made it worth while,& for us to obey the stupid, pathetic over burdensome, inflexible, unmovable rules imposed upon us and still doing so as they've destroyed those aspects of it, it's no longer viable, so why should i bother listening to their BS about rules.

    After all didn't TFL ride a coach & horses through all the rules to licence that app supplier? Which in doing so, raised the anger of the minicab fraternity who had obeyed those very rules. Now 98% of minicab business's have gone out of business, so why did they bother obeying any fece issued by a nasty, distainful, unlawful, dishonest, cheating, lieing, fraudulant, TFL? and why should we bother?

    TFL needs to be the one that provides evidence of being fit & proper persons to conduct the business of the people, not London taxi drivers. 
    So far taxi drivers have shown more commitment, honesty to their buniness than TFL have shown to the entire electorate of London.

    TFL, destroyers of the London licensed taxi (Black cab), destroying the livelyhoods of the independent individual traders of London on behalf of Corporate sector profitability!

    Unfortunately, this letter was unsigned. 

    Back in February this year, the chair of the London Cab Drivers Club (LCDC) Grant Davis made a very bold statement, which was published in their newspaper, "The Badge".

    Mr Davis said:
    Whilst the trade is united in accepting the need for us to take credit cards, there is some disunity as to how this strategy will be implemented.

    The majority of taxi drivers who already take credit cards and the app companies, who already process cards, are very concerned with TfL proposals for fixed units tied to the metre.

    Unfortunately, at the meetings the LTDA is the only Org in favour of this proposal (it's a done deal isn't it Steve-JT). 
    Let me make it clear, the LCDC will in no way be dictated to by TfL, yet again, as to what we can and cannot do in this issue.

    To implement more costs which include brackets, electrical work connecting the metre, etc. at a time when the trade is fighting for its life is utter madness.

    If need be, the LCDC are prepared, with others, to instigate legal action if they try to go ahead and impose this on us.

    Grant Davis 


    On the London Taxi Drivers Forum:
    Many drivers are giving their unqualified verdict that TfL can't do this, can't do that.
    Well TfL will be doing this, and they will be doing that.
    And it appears no one is doing a thing to stop them.

    We've been informed on Twitter (by TfL @TfLTPH) that the mandate is perfectly legal because Leon Daniels has signed off the following London Cab Order regarding the acceptance of Credit/debit cards.

    >content.tfl.gov.uk/the-london-cab-order.pdf<

    As the deadline approaches, not a word on the LCDC's United trade's legal action. 
    To be fair, the LTDA's Steve McNamara went on record saying 
    "nothing can be done, it is a done deal".
    Yes, looks like we've all been done......again.

    Who can forget the wonderful offer of a 15 year age limit, made to Mayor Boris Johnson on our behalf by this mob.

    How many full time working cab drivers can you see?
    Apparently Grant Davis was there, but didn't want to be in the same room as Brian Rice 

    Unfortunately, our representative org's lack of action, is not confined to one issue:
    • No landline for Uber bookings !
    • No Uber bookings !
    • Licence renewals fiasco !
    • Leon's lies to the GLA, on off insurance and Jo Bertram's personal phone number given by Leon, as Ubers public booking line !
    • We then had Leon's Ubergate Email's !
    • Operation no one !
    • Then Uber in court saying on oath, "the company doesn't take bookings, bookings are taken by drivers in car" !

    To top this, the sexual assaults and rape statistics, gained by Freedom of Information Request, were dumbed down on the LTDA AdVan, to appease TfL.

    And now silence from our org leaders who all know what's happened to Leon, but no ones willing to say anything.

    And now, this below, picked up by #SaveTaxi Facebook group.


    SOMEONE PLEASE REMIND ME AGAIN, WHAT IS IT OUR REPRESENTATIVE ORGS DO FOR THE MONEY WE PAY THEM?


                      Breaking news: 
    'Rear Fitted CC Machines Required, But Unnecessary'.
    It's just been confirmed by the LTDA that although you will have to have CC machines fitted in the rear, you won't be forced to use them. Hand held devices can still be used.

    How long will equipment suppliers stand the cost of fitting machines in vehicles, where drivers are not using them. 
    It will just encourage the companies to charge a high monthly rental....more expense, when we can least afford to pay it. 
    And you won't be able to claim the expense back from the customer.

    It just doesn't add up. 
    This whole issue has been handled diabolically from the start, I'll thought out by our representative orgs, with TfL taking no notice of its own consultation results. 


    At least there are some drivers out there willing to fight for what's right. And it don't cost you one penny.
        
    PLANS to operate tinted window minicabs like limousines from Luton Airport have been dealt a blow by the council.


    Addison Lee, who recently won the contract to operate their vans and cars from the airport, had wanted to introduce a fleet of 30 ‘executive vehicles’ which featured tinted windows and would be exempt from the display of licence plates identifying them as private hire. But Luton Borough Council’s licensing panel rejected the move on Monday. It’s a big blow for both Addison Lee, who have said they are exploring an appeal.

    Give them an inch and they want a yard!
    Luton Airport had consistently said that their decision to replace the Luton Hackney Carriage Association with Addison Lee was so that passengers could see an ‘improved fleet of vehicles’.
    Although Addison Lee has said service levels have already gone up, they conceded the council’s decision not to allow the executive fleet was ‘saddening’.

    Michael Galvin, head of regulatory affairs with Addison Lee, told Luton on Sunday: “I was more sad than angry at the decision. The case we put to the licensing panel was open and honest and presented in good faith, and we felt we had addressed any issues. The thought of going to appeal is not something we usually like doing, but we are exploring that process.”

    A spokesman for Luton Borough Council said: “The application to relax the conditions in the Private Hire Operators Licence which would allow the company to operate vehicles with tinted windows and which did not display the licence plate and standard signage was refused.

    “Whilst there is no express definition of the term ‘Executive Licence’ the Panel did not consider Addison Lee’s operation to fall within such a category.

    “The Panel recognises that certain private hire operators undertake contracts which are more akin to a chauffeur driven car, often using prestige vehicles, being contracted to a specific customer or company and often at the disposal of the hirer for extended periods rather than for single journeys.

    “The Panel did not consider Addison Lee’s operation to differ significantly from an ordinary private hire service and serves the general public using the airport rather than any exclusive or separately identifiable customer base.

    “Given the similarity with other private hire operators and also to the previous hackney carriage provision at the airport, there was no reason to justify departure from the Council’s policy requiring the grant of a licence with standard operator conditions.

    “The standard conditions are imposed for the purpose of protecting customers and the wider public who come into contact with private hire vehicles.

    "Accordingly, the application to exempt the operator from the standard is refused and the standard conditions will remain on the licence previously issued".

    Editorial Comment: 
    It would appear that Addison Lee have shown more respect for Luton Council than they show TfL. At least they app,keep for permission to run their fans with tinted windows in Luton and yet to our knowledge have never applied for or been granted permission to have tinted windows on their London fleet, they just did it. 

    Again we see our licensing authority (TfL) scared to take action against private hire. More recently we saw Addison Lees minicabs with Rugby World Cup full body liveries and blacked out windows,  in contravention of their licensing conditions yet again. 

       TfL said and did nothing about it.

    Perhaps TfL's compliance teams were too busy harassing Taxi drivers for badge and bills at station ranks 
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